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Well, not exactly – but at the end of the day the DJIA moved up just .04 percent, the S&P500 fell the same amount, – .04 percent, while the NASDAQ’s increase of a minuscule .04 points was too small to be rounded up to .01 percent! A combination so rare that the record list only 10 other such days. Yet the last repeat occurred this past October 11, a mere three weeks ago.

Furthermore, no major changes occurred in the direction of prices following these closes. That seems odd; since it’s plausible to expect significant differences in price trends after a session where all the market forces add up to zero change.

Turning to the NASDAQ’s string of seven consecutive positive closes, it seems ill advised to use today’s outcome as number eight in a row. Nevertheless, here is the count: before today, this index experienced four sessions with eight consecutive advances. Three following days made it to nine in a row.

DJIA                                                   .04 percent

NASDAQ                                          -.04 percent

S&P500                                           .00 percent

Note – We are in the process of changing from Window XP to Windows 7; we thank you for understanding that our difficulties with this transition have resulted in quality deterioration of recent posts.

Counting today’s NASDAQ advance of just .16 percent as its seventh straight daily positive close brings the count to five such streaks this year. That’s a rare positive sequence, since only 10 other seven day streaks occurred in the previous nine years since 2000. This low frequency should not be surprising, however, because these long runs come only in bull market times.

Looking ahead we note only five occasions when the positive run went on to an eighth positive gain in a row – with three of these 2010 happenings.

Of course such countings do not a bull market make – and most investors would readily trade a sharp, substantial advance for these many recent small changes. Nevertheless, the historical association is clear: these runs typically occur when prices trend higher.

Accordingly, whether tomorrow moves prices higher or lower, the fact to remember is that lengthy positive runs are an important clue describing ongoing bull markets.

DJIA                               – .11 percent

NASDAQ                         .16 percent

S&P500                         .11 percent

Note – We are in the process of changing from Window XP to Windows 7; we thank you for understanding that our difficulties with this transition have resulted in quality deterioration of recent posts.

 Today’s diagram reveals  the NASDAQ’s substantial advantages during the ongoing  recovery from the March 2009 low. Yet its percentage decrease, between the October 2007 top and the 2009 bottom, was not worse than the DJIA and S&P500.

Currently, the NASDAQ value  has recovered to  89 percent of its peak value; but the DJIA achieved only a 79 percent return, while the S&P500 lags at 76 percent.

DJIA                           -.38 percent

NASDAQ                      .24 percent

S&P500                      -.27 percent

Even though daily gains seem to be moderating, prices continue to advance. The NASDAQ added 18 percent over the last 40 sessions – substantially more than the S&P500′s 13 percent and the trailing 11.6 percent of the DJIA. While large, these rates seems moderate compared to the 40 day total change rate posted when the market nears a peak.

The diagram, detailing the 40 day rates of change for the NASDAQ over the past ten years, indeed reveals that the most recent rate, 18 percent, lags the near 40 percent of last year. Nevertheless, today’s 40 day advance ratios, cluster in the 99 percent bracket for every one of these three market averages.

DJIA                              .05 percent

NASDAQ                      .00 percent

S&P500                      .26 percent

Note – We are in the process of changing from Window XP to Windows 7; we thank you for understanding that our difficulties with this transition have resulted in quality deterioration of recent posts.

All three indices closed higher, but their gains were far smaller than the highs reached earlier in the day. The NASDAQ and the S&P500 enjoyed their fourth straight gain whereas the DJIA’s increase came after Friday’s loss. Notably, these positive results run contrary to the projection based on the history of Friday’s closing pattern. In the past, declines outnumbered advances on the following day.

However, 6 of these 9 previous occasions happened while prices were on the rise – this yields a further viewpoint not explored in Friday’s post.

Consider the daily closes of the S&P500 since its last peak in October 2007. The diagram marks that occurrence, 766 trading days ago with the second red, vertical line. The first red line from the left, indicates the low of 676 in March 2009.

Of course eyeballing these data allows many different interpretations. Yet its attractive to consider that the current cycle will parallel the previous one. That conjecture can be supported by the time path and recovery of the 2000/2007 cycle.

Yet, even if such a bold interpretation were to realized in the future, note that in the more than 1,100 trading days to that top, many opportunities exist for major, negative market adjustments.

DJIA                              .28 percent

NASDAQ                      .46 percent

S&P500                        .21 percent

Note – We are in the process of changing from Window XP to Windows 7; we thank you for understanding that our difficulties with this transition have resulted in quality deterioration of recent posts.

The DJIA change of -.13 percent, in contrast with the S&P500 .24 percent uptick and the .80 percent advance of the NASDAQ, presents a pattern of -1/+2 for the DJIA and +3/-1 for the other two indices. The record reveals this combination to be rare, with only 17 other such closes since 1950 – nine of which occurred since January 2000.

Furthermore, classifying the last nine, 21^st century,

events by bull and bear markets, shows six happenings when prices were rising, with the last three since the bottom of March 2009.

However, on the following day, declines outnumbered gains. The NASDAQ fell 7 times, rising only twice. The DJIA and the S&P500 also had more losses than advances, but their ratios were just 5 losses and 4 gains.

DJIA                                    - .13 percent

NASDAQ                               .80 percent

S&P500                                .24 percent

Note – We are in the process of changing from Window XP to Windows 7; we thank you for understanding that our difficulties with this transition have resulted in quality deterioration of recent posts.

Prices galloped higher at the beginning -with the S&P500 up more than 1 percent- then fell; at the end the S&P500 increase had fallen to just .18 percent. Similarly, the DJIA closed up .35 percent and the NASDAQ moved just .09 higher.

This positive close, the second in a row, following a one day decline, is the 85^th since the beginning of 2000 and the 192^nd overall. The NASDAQ continued to move higher 48 times, falling on 36 days. The S&P500 rose 44 times and fell 40 times; the DJIA’s 48 declines, however, outnumbered the 36 gains.

Today’s diagram compares the price paths of the current cycle with those of the previous cycle. Its 2000 top, in blue, is placed to coincide with the October 9, 2007 peak of the current cycle (in red). Whereas this cycle bottomed in March, 2009, the previous one experienced a much longer downturn.

Yet, since the start of this year, the S&P500 seems to parallel the indecision, at this time point, of the earlier cycle. Accordingly, it raises the possibility that the recent reversal, and recovery, of the rising price line may continue for a while before this market establishes a clear direction.

DJIA                     .35 percent

NASDAQ              .09 percent

S&P500              .18 percent

Prices moved sharply higher during the day, but then backtracked. Nevertheless prices closed on the positive side, but these gains fell short of negating Tuesday’s substantial decline. The DJIA moved up 1.18 percent, the S&P500 closed 1.05 percent higher while the NASDAQ languished at plus .84 percent – less than half of yesterday’s decline.

Summing up the last four trading days, the pattern for the DJIA comes to   +1/-1/+1/-1. The NASDAQ and the S&P500 sequences now stand at   +1/-1/+2. With only four such days overall, with three of these since January 2000, any generalizing about tomorrow’s market lacks substantial confidence.

The record shows these three indices declined on each of the succeeding four sessions. Nevertheless, everyone of these happenings occurred during bull markets, and accompanied a trend of rising prices.

DJIA                        1.18 percent

NASDAQ                   .84 percent

S&P500                 1.05 percent

Although prices drifted down only slightly, that move stopped the latest streak at five straight advances for the NASDAQ and four positive days in a row for the DJIA and the S&P500. Therefore today’s pattern for the NASDAQ is -1/+5; it is -1/+4 for the other two averages. However, because only five previous days exist -and all occurred before 2000, their discussion provides little insight into the market structure. The batch is too small, and too old, to allow any meaningful insights.

Today’s commentary focuses on the record of sessions following streaks of four and five day increases. The NASDAQ’s, for example, posted 72 five day advances larger than yesterday’s 1.70; on the following day, the three indices had median declines of -.28 percent for the S&P500 and -.16 percent for the DJIA; the NASDAQ itself, however, gained .10 percent. These numbers cluster around today’s closes of -.36 percent for the S&P500; -.01 percent for the DJIA and the NASDAQ change of -.24 percent.

Similar rates, although positive, apply to the four day change rate of the S&P500; its 1.78 percent was bettered 475 times since January 2000. Further, yesterday’s DJIA four day rate, of 1.35 percent ranks as number 655 since 2000. Thus the proposal that yesterday and today display uncharacteristic behavior remains unpersuasive.

DJIA                                  - .01 percent

NASDAQ                           - .24 percent

S&P500                           -.36 percent