Archive for September, 2010

September 14, 2010 — Mixed Day Ends Positive String

Tuesday, September 14th, 2010

 

 

While the NASDAQ index closed higher, plus .18 percent, today for the fifth consecutive session, the DJIA and the S&P500 ended in the red, at -.17 percent and -.07 percent. This result does not fit the rather optimistic outlook for prices based on Tuesday’s pattern. Of course it’s possible to equivocate; to claim these rather small changes, not very far from zero, could just as well have ended on the positive side of zero.

 

But that fiddling serves no purpose: MarketView uses the reported numbers as indicators of historical tendencies; and how investors react to actual given changes. That criterion provides hard, undoctored numbers rather than fanciful imaginations of what might have been.

 

Today’s NASDAQ pattern of +5 and of  -1/+4 for the DJIA and the S&P500 has occurred on 50 other closes since 1950 and just seven times so far in this century. Similar to yesterday’s inability to use such infrequent results for projecting future price trends, all that can be stated for today’s combination is that since 2000, the following day’s prices increased four times and declined three times.

 

Yet three of these seven next-day prices almost coincided with upper and lower turning points. The one in 2003 came 57 trading days after the trough, when each of the three indices gained around 1.3 percent. Similarly, just two days after the October 2007 peak, all three averages fell; finally, at the end of 2008, some three months before prices hit bottom on March 9, 2009, these indices increased between 3 and 4 percent on the following day.

 

 

 

DJIA               – .17 percent

NASDAQ        . 18 percent

S&P500       - .07 percent

September 13, 2010 — Positive Run Goes to Fourth Day

Monday, September 13th, 2010

Prices scored their largest gains of the four day rally: the NASDAQ roared ahead by 1.93 percent; the S&P500 was not far behind, accelerating 1.11 percent. The DJIA advanced .78 percent. Four day runs are uncommon; only 21 have crossed the tape in the past 11 years.

 

Yet prospects for tomorrow, based on this history, seem far from favorable. Since 2000, the three indices moved higher 9 times, falling on the other 11 occasions. Moreover, since 1950, these averages managed only 33 runs of five straight increases over the span of more than 15,000 trading days.

 

Nonetheless, watch Tuesday’s closes for a meaningful clue to the near future. All of the five day positive runs took place during trends of higher prices. On the negative side, note that since January 2000, prices fell seven times during bear markets, and moved up four times when prices accelerated.

 

Thus a fifth straight advance tomorrow could be interpreted as projection a further price recovery, whereas declines, by the same reasoning, imply weaker markets ahead.

 

 

DJIA                .78 percent

NASDAQ       1.93 percent

S&P500       1.11 percent

 

Good to be back on line again!

September 10, 2010 — Computer Hang-up — Sorry, No Post Today

Sunday, September 12th, 2010

September 9, 2010 Prices Hover Near Month Ago Level

Thursday, September 9th, 2010

 

Moving higher for the second day, the S&P500 at 1,104.18 has returned almost to its August 9 close of 1,128. Similarly, the DJIA and the NASDAQ are also recovering to their early August values. Given the recent ups and downs, today’s pattern comes in at +2/-1/+3; that expression summarizes the recent action, namely today’s and yesterday’s advances, together with Tuesday’s steep losses, and the mini rally at the end of last week.
This combination occurred just 12 times since 1950 and with today’s close, is the 5th repeat since January 2000. The analysis of the when and the how of these happenings does not yield a meaningful relationship with either a bull market, a turning point or a decline in prices, Turning to tomorrow’s action, both the NASDAQ and the S&P500 moved higher on the next day, three out of the four previous experiences. The DJIA, on the other hand, has only two subsequent increases together with two declines.

 

 

DJIA                    .27 percent

NASDAQ             .33 percent

S&P500             .48 percent

September 7, 2010 Prices Fall after Holiday

Tuesday, September 7th, 2010

The market failed to maintain the momentum which had moved prices higher for the past three sessions. The S&P500 fell  -1.15 percent, the NASDAQ lost  -1.11 percent, and the DJIA at  -  1.03 percent was down the least.

Today’s pattern therefore of  -1/+3 comes as the 21st repeat since January 2000 and the 61st after 1949.  The record shows gains on most of the following days. Whereas the NASDAQ had 13 advances and 7 declines the next day, the &P500 has a favorable ratio of 4:1 with  just four declines against  16 gains.

DJIA                  -1.03  percent

NASDAQ           -1.11 percent

S&P500             -1.15 percent

HURRICANE E TIME –BLOG WILL BE DOWN TILL TUESDAY AFTER LABOR DAY

Thursday, September 2nd, 2010

Sorry — Will be back next Tuesday — Have a good Labor Day Weekend.