August 23, 2010 No Clear Direction in Daily Price Changes Each of these three indices continuing to post individual patterns, rather than moving uniformly, adds difficulty to the task of projecting future prices. Today, for example, the NASDAQ posted a loss while the DJIA and the S&P500 fell for the third day in a row.
Only seven such days occurred since January 2000. However, the pattern of all three indices on the day before, last Friday stood identical at minus two. Had the NASDAQ declined instead, it would have resulted in a pattern of three declines for these indices. This would yield a record of 51 such days since 2000.
Its futile of course to beg off the forecasting task just because the market fails to present a consistent configuration. Indeed, the irregular market mandates even better and more reliable projection techniques. Consequently, the current MARKETVIEW methods reliance on historical parallels of patterns needs adjustments to remain useful.
Our program therefore needs some reworking.
In so much as past statistics, nevertheless, do present analytical possibilities; we continue to publish them with these reservations.
The last seven closes with todays pattern, in any case, provide no guidance for tomorrow: the following day had three declines and four increases. DJIA - .36 percent NASDAQ - .92 percent S&P500 - .40 percent