July 27, 2010 DJIA Advances -NASDAQ and S&P500 Decline

 

Although closing higher, the DJIA gained just .12 percent and while losing, the S&P500 dropped only -.10 percent. The NASDAQ, however, fell back  -.36 percent. We summarize this pattern as plus four for the DJIA and  -1/+3 for the other two indicators.Today’s price actions coincide almost perfectly with their historical averages. These are .12 percent for the DJIA,  -.12 percent for the S&P500 and  -.35 percent for the NASDAQ. Not a correlation seen often.

On the other hand though, this is a rare combination with only 13 previous appearances of which 8 occurred since January 2000.

07272010-eight-s-and-n-down-1-d-up4.GIF 

The diagram plotting these later points indicates when they happened and that day’s S&P500’s rate of change. Unexpectedly the entire set shares the 2003/2007 expansion.  Yet it would be mistaken to declare today’s pattern as an indicator of good times ahead. A more somber interpretation comes from examining the price action in the neighborhood of these closes. True, the trend continues positive, yet invariably a decline is the immediate consequence. Moreover the last three of these happenings came shortly before the market reached its top in October 2007.These data, therefore, are facing in two opposite directions, with their positive trend consistent with overall growth and their immediate consequences negative.  

DJIA                    .12  percentNASDAQ           - .36  percentS&P500             - .10  percent

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