Todays negative closes, after the two successive gains which started this week, is the 79th repeat of the pattern -1/+2 since the beginning of 2000. These losses for the S&P500 down minus 1.28 percent- the DJIA off minus 1.07 percent- and minus -1.58 percent for the NASDAQ, come in worse than the average of the earlier changes. Before this close, the average losses were -.95 percent for the SD&P500, -.87 percent for the DJIA and 1.16 percent of the NASDAQ. Yet the worst losses experienced with this pattern fall in the range of -4 to -5 percent.
On the day following, while increases beat the number of declines, the gap is far from substantial, running in the 55 percent area. The diagram positions the next day changes, by gains and losses, over the four phases of the past two cycles.
Whereas the total count over the 2003/2007 expansion exceeds those of each of the two declines, the current period, since March 2009, does not. This configuration therefore fails to provide a guide to project the future. Moreover, the number of positive next day gains during the 2007/2009 decline exceeds those since March 2009.
DJIA - 1.07 percent NASDAQ - 1.58 percent
S&P500 - 1.28 percent