June 16, 2010 — A Strange Day

The three indices closed at almost the same levels as the day before. The NASDAQ’s change so small that rounded to two decimal places it came to plus 0 percent, with the actual increase limited to .00002 percent. The DJIA did move higher, although by no more than .05 percent. The S&P500, however, fell – posting the larger change of the day at -.06 percent.

In addition, today’s pattern added to the atypical character. It was the fifth increase in a row for the NASDAQ, the second for the DJIA, while the S&P500 fell after increasing the day before. Only two other days experienced this combination, one in 1988 and the other in 1993.Perhaps this action results from feeling uncertain about the market’s near term future – and the continuing oil spillage, the possible nascent European situation worsening, as well as the continuing weakness in total employment provide significant reasons for hesitancy and timidity.

 

 

sadj-673-days-into-1895-2000-2007-cycle.gif

Indeed comparing the current price cycle with the previous one of 2000-2007, reveals decay in the current market action. Instead of this cycle continuing to better the earlier one, its progress has declined. Further, at this stage, perhaps current prices will imitate and result in a third pause as before.

The future obviously is unknown; yet insights of what happened in the past –like the current diagram- provides awareness and understanding for today. Knowing the past helps in understanding the future.

 DJIA                       .05   percent

 NASDAQ               0     percent S&P500                -.06    percent

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