May 17, 2010 — Not Much Change at the Close

Prices, off about  -1.5 percent during the day recovered at the end to close slightly higher. The NASDAQ gained  .31 percent, the S&P500  .11 percent and the DJIA squeaked into the positive by a mere  .05 percent.

The pattern of +1/-2  summarizes the daily changes since last Thursday: today’s increase followed two declines in a row. Previously, 61 days reported this combination since 2000, and 89 more occurred in the previous fifty years.  Unfortunately, it is not possible to include and to evaluate the history of Wednesday’s positive close.  Only two days, back in 1978 and 1980, experienced this pattern of +1/-2/+3.

Considering the record of the following day reveals that it to be more or less evenly distributed between positive and negative closes. However, many of the next day’s gains were found during the two upswings.

Currently the NASDAQ has recovered near 83.5 percent of its 2007 high. That ratio, however, had reached 90 percent at the end of April. The other two indices have not regained as much. The DJIA now stands at 75 percent and the S&P500 at 74 percent; these ratios have dropped from their 79 percent highs in April, some four weeks ago.    DJIA                .05 percent                                NASDAQ        .31 percen  S&P500           .11 percent 

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.