USMarketView

Prices plunged from the start; they came back later in the afternoon, yet at the close the S&P500 had lost -1.61 percent, the NASDAQ was off -1.37 percent and the DJIA fell 1.13 percent.  Today’s falloff, the worst in 49 trading days, ended the succession of gains that began on April 15.

To put these results in perspective, we have ranked daily decreases by their size. In that array, only 560 closes of the S&P500 experienced losses worse than today’s  -1.61 percent. Similarly, the NASDAQ decline occupies the 887th position, meaning that of its 4,300 negative days, the  -1.37  percent decline has only 886 more substantial than today – and some 3,400 smaller.

Meanwhile the DJIA suffered the least damage. Its  -1.13 percent change, being the softest of the three, is reflected by its place of only the 1,155th largest of 7,185 negative sessions since 1950.

The outlook for the next day, based on the history of today’s pattern, fails to yield a strong turnaround.  Whereas the NASDAQ’s record shows an even number of gains and losses, the S&P500 has 7 losses and only 5 recoveries, and the DJIA’s ratio is 8 losses to 4 increases.

Note that in evaluating the MarketViewUS projection for today, it failed to provide even a hint of its extent. Moreover, the existing data were unable to point unambiguously even to the market’s direction, with the DJIA’s -7/+4 record, the +6/6 S&P500 history and the NASDAQ’s past of 9 advances
and 3 declines.
DJIA              -1.13 percent
NASDAQ      -1.37 percent 
S&P500        -1.61 percent

Market Scores Sixth Successive Rise

Prices moved higher again, maintaining the string of daily positive changes string that began on Thursday of the previous week. While the averages reached this same milestone only 73 trading days ago, on December 29, 2009, these are the only two occasions since mid-1995, more than 3700 market days in the past.  In total, the market achieved this six up days in a row a mere 12 times since 1950.

Notwithstanding this achievement, the S&P500 edged up no more than  .08 percent; the DJIA gained .19 percent while the NASDAQ moved  .43 percent higher today.

Returning to the count of successive advances, note that in April, so far, the DJIA has declined only twice, whereas both the NASDAQ and the S&P500 had just one decline. Accordingly, the ‘six in a row’ feat tends to underrate the market’s strength and endurance.The NASDAQ now is 4.9 percent higher than at the end of March; the S&P500 moved up 3.6 percent while the DJIA advanced 2.6 percent in the nine sessions of April.

Putting these data in perspective, note that the NASDAQ achieved better gains on only 323 occasions, or on 12.5 percent of the 2,584 trading days since January 2000.The DJIA fell below this mark, having  16.5 percent of its closes exceed this recent nine day run-up. The S&P500, on the other hand, leads the other two indices by having just 9.8 percent of its other nine day runs do better than its 3.6 percent since March 31.

Turning to expectations for tomorrow, the record shows that the DJIA achieved a seventh advance only four times; the S&P500 stands even, at six gains and six losses, while the NASDAQ moved higher, achieving a seven day streak, nine times.

DJIA               .19 percent

NASDAQ       .43 percent                     

S&P500          .08 percent

COMPLETE POSTS DELAYED – HERE ARE BRIEFS OF TODAY AND YESTERDAY

The market continuing its surge that started last Thursday completed its fifth successive advance. There have been only 31 other such sequences, with 7 occurring since January 2000.

Six of these latest chains came when prices were in a Bull Market mode; just one accompanied falling prices – in November 2008.

The record, however, reveals that declines followed on the sixth day – with setbacks outnumbering further increases six to one. Furthermore, that reversal, at the end of 2008,        was sizeable, ranging from -7.7 percent for the DJIA to -8.9 percent for the NASDAQ and the S&P500. 

Expect to Correct Computer Hang-ups shortly.

DJIA               .94 percent

NASDAQ      1.59 percent                    

S&P500         1.12 percent

Gains Recover Some of Yesterday’s Losses

Prices managed to eke higher after being in the red for most of the morning.  While the mild. 23 percent improvement returned the NASDAQ to its Tuesday level, the DJIA up just  .27 percent failed to manage that recuperation. Nor did the S&P500’s increase of  .34 percent allow that index to revisit Tuesday’s last price.Today’s pattern –the three indices posting their first gain after Wednesday’s decline, but the DJIA also on Tuesday– is its 33^rd repeat, 17 of which occurred since January 2000.

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 The diagram shows these dates with a large triangle, imposed on the daily closing prices of the S&P500.Contrary to many of these figures displayed recently, it shows today’s combination associated more with growth than declines. Interpreting the 13 days associated with rising prices as a signal of better times ahead seems reasonable, especially since the other 4 originated in declining markets.

Yet using these same results to project Friday’s action yields a negative expectation.  The NASDAQ fell 12 times on the following day; it turned higher just 5 times. The short term prognostication holds for the DJIA and the S&P500; their ratio is 11 losses and 6 increases.

DJIA               .37 percent

NASDAQ       .23 percent                     

S&P500          .34 percent

The DJIA continued down for the second successive day, closing minus .66 percent, and the other two indices, posted losses for the first time since Friday, three market days ago. The NASDAQ was off minus .23 percent whereas the S&P500 dropped -.59 percent.Considering the relative size of these changes, note that today’s NASDAQ change was its 3309^th worst performance. That is, there have been 3308 deeper daily losses since the start of the NASDAQ. The rank of the S&P500 decline is 2823 and the DJIA rank is 2659. These numbers place daily changes in perspective, relative to the prior performance of each separate index. It allows more index specific allocation and judgment of variations compared to contrasting the performance of say the DJIA to the S&P500. After all, the purpose of these indicators is to measure the accomplishments of differential asset allocations.Turning to the pattern of changes, the recent sequence of both the NASDAQ and the S&P500 is -1/+3.   The DJIA stands at -2/+2  or two losses following two daily upticks. History reveals only 19 such closes, with 10 occurring since January 2000. The data for the following day are strongly indicative of increases for tomorrow – in the past gains outnumbered declines by better than two to one.

DJIA              - .66 percent

NASDAQ      - .23 percent                    

S&P500          -.59 percent

The DJIA continued down for the second successive day, closing minus .66 percent, and the other two indices, posted losses for the first time since Friday, three market days ago. The NASDAQ was off minus .23 percent whereas the S&P500 dropped -.59 percent.Considering the relative size of these changes, note that today’s NASDAQ change was its 3309^th worst performance. That is, there have been 3308 deeper daily losses since the start of the NASDAQ. The rank of the S&P500 decline is 2823 and the DJIA rank is 2659. These numbers place daily changes in perspective, relative to the prior performance of each separate index. It allows more index specific allocation and judgment of variations compared to contrasting the performance of say the DJIA to the S&P500. After all, the purpose of these indicators is to measure the accomplishments of differential asset allocations.Turning to the pattern of changes, the recent sequence of both the NASDAQ and the S&P500 is -1/+3.   The DJIA stands at -2/+2  or two losses following two daily upticks. History reveals only 19 such closes, with 10 occurring since January 2000. The data for the following day are strongly indicative of increases for tomorrow – in the past gains outnumbered declines by better than two to one.

DJIA              - .66 percentNASDAQ      - .23 percent                     S&P500          -.59 percent