April 21, 2010 Unfamiliar Pattern and Minute Changes

Today’s close is just the fourth instance when [1] the S&P500 fell after a positive run, [2] the NASDAQ closed higher for the second straight day, and [3] the DJIA closed higher for the third successive day. Further, the most recent of these occurred in 1993, with the other two dating back to 1985 and 1993.

The other unusual feature of the day is mildness of the changes scored by each of the three indices. The S&P500’s decline, of -.10 percent, ranks as the 126th smallest negative movement in the more than 7,000 declines since 1950. On the other side, the DJIA gain of  .07 percent is the 565th minutest increase ever and  places 95th in the near 1,100 gains in this century.The NASDAQ’s change of  .17 percent, while small as well, nevertheless is twice the size of the DJIA’s. Accordingly it is higher up in the grading, coming in at number 968 of the 2,900 some positive NASDAQ closes since 1975, and 150th of 1,300 gains since January 2000.

These rare happenings fail to provide a sufficient number of observations to even consider the changes that might arise tomorrow.  Reviewing yesterday’s projection – that the record was too evenly distributed between advance and declines –  it is judged useful by not providing any projection at all.

DJIA                .07 percentNASDAQ        .17 percent                    

S&P500          -.10 percent

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