April 22, 2009
Abrupt changes are the rule, not the exception, in recent market action. Prices gave way toward the end of the session, after holding on to gains above one percent for most of the day. Whereas the DJIA and the S&P500 closed lower, the NASDAQ did not fall into the red, but closed up by just .14 percent. The market pattern now stands at -1/+1/-1 for the DJIA and the S&P500 and at +2/-1 for the NASDAQ. This combination has occurred 45 times since 1950, with 7 of these happening in this century. All of these closes share the quality that, while the overall path of prices may have been positive, they come at a phase when the market is not moving up.
As for the next day, in the past the DJIA and the S&P500 increased almost twice as often they fell, whereas the NASDAQ ratio is closer to 1.5 times. Evaluating todays results in terms of what could be expected based on identical happenings in the past, the conclusion is that todays small changes except for the DJIA- is consistent with the even number of declines and increases
DJIA -1.04 percent
NASDAQ .14 percent
S&P500 -.77 percent