April 20, 2009
The market was in negative territory from the start, and closed with the S&P500 down -4.32 percent. The NASDAQ lost -3.88 percent while the DJIA fell -3.56 percent. But the good news is that today was only the fourth negative day of the 13 trading days this month for the NASDAQ and the S&P500, and the fifth for the DJIA.
Moreover, today saw the first down close in four days, and came after three straight gains at the end of the week. As our Friday discussion pointed out, in the past a fourth successive gain occurred only 20 of 49 days for the DJIA; it was almost even for the S&P500 whereas the NASDAQs gains outnumbered losses by a ratio of 29:20.
In addition, putting todays losses in perspective, prices are still substantially above the markets bottom on March 3 and March 8. The NASDAQ has now increased more than 26 percent in the 27 trading days since early March, while the DJIA and the S&P500 are up 20 percent.
Looking at the next trading day, in the past after a pattern of -1/+3, that is the day after a decline that followed three gains in a row, the NASDAQ only had six losses compared to eleven gains. The S&P500 fared somewhat better, with only three further losses against 14 increases. The DJIAs record is in the middle, having four losses but thirteen gains since January 2000.
DJIA -3.56 percent
NASDAQ -3.88 percent
S&P500 -4.32 percent