February 18, 2009
Prices moved up and down, over and under the zero change line. In the end, they clustered in the no change zone, with the DJIA up by only .04 percent, and the S&P500 down -.10 percent while the NASDAQ was the biggest mover of the day, losing -.18 percent. Days with this little variation are rare; only 11 such closes are in this century, while the other 21 reach back only to 1973. Moreover, these were more common in years with rising prices than falling prices, by a ratio of 20:12.
The combination of three straight losses for the NASDAQ and the S&P500, with the DJIA moving higher does not happen often. Indeed just 15 of these closes exist, with the earliest one in 1981 and the latest occurring just last September. Of course, with todays minute changes, there is not much meaning to this count.
There is a preponderance of positive movement in the past on the following day. The NASDAQ moved higher 23 times and fell on only 9 days. The S&P500 history is less robust, with 18 gains and 14 losses on the next day, while the DJIA has an even number of gains and losses.
DJIA .04 percent
NASDAQ -.18 percent
S&P500 -.10 percent