December 29, 2008
While all the indices declines today, the -1.3 percent fall of the NASDAQ was more than triple the fall in the DJIA and the S&P500. Moreover, on this third-to-the-last trading day of the year, the NASDAQ has declined near 66 percent of the time, whereas the other two indices dropped slightly more than half of the time.
Yet when disaggregating the changes on these days into years when the market gained and when the marked tumbled, as it did in 2008, the DJIA and the S&P500 had about 1.5 times as many declines as increases, but the NASDAQ fell only 80 percent as often as in good years.
As for the second-to-the-last-trading day of the year, in the past these indices have risen more often than fallen. The NASDAQ has the most promising record for negative years such as 2008: only a third as many decreases as increases for this day. The DJIA and the S&P500, however, have about a record of near 60 percent as many declines in years such as this compared to years when the market moved higher.
DJIA -.37 percent
NASDAQ -1.30 percent
S&P500 -.39 percent