November 3, 2008
Todays NASDAQ gain of just .31 percent it is the fifth positive close in as many days. Yet this run follows a similar five-day streak, but in this earlier one, the index posted five successive losses. The net result of the ten-day scamper is a 44 point drop in the NASDAQ. Therefore, despite some very good days offsetting losers, the index lost -2.55 percent since October 20.
The S&P500 and the DJIA daily close patterns follow a different route, with runs no longer than two days in either direction. Yet while the S&P500 lost -1.92 percent, the DJIA gained .59 percent.
The diagram below plots the frequency count of the NASDAQ against the daily closing prices between September 2 and today, November 3. In this time, the NASDAQ had two negative runs – one lasting seven trading days, and other for five days and the current positive run, now five days old.
Comparing the runs to the index changes indicates that major price changes do not occur in increments of one or two day lengths, but that the large modifications require consecutive closes of several days. That appears to be the rule both for significant declines as well for large increases.
DJIA -.06 percent
NASDAQ .31 percent
S&P500 -.25 percent