Index Divergence at Close

September 26, 2008

The market opened lower, and, as Washington continued its debate on what to do about the liquidity crisis, prices moved higher. Nevertheless, the NASDAQ was off at the close while the S&P500 recovered enough to post a gain. But the DJIA moved forward aggressively, increasing 1.1 percent.

This pattern occurred last on February 12, and by the end of the month, 12 trading days later, the NASDAQ had fallen -1.6 percent.

There have been 21 other such days in this century, all during the 2000 to 2003 stretch of declining prices. Then the NASDAQ lost two thirds of its value.

Looking at the next day, however, while the ratio is almost even, prices rose 12 times and declined 10 times.

All the indices suffered significant declines since last Friday, a not unusual outcome in recent weeks. For the DJIA, setbacks outnumber advances in five of the last seven weeks, whereas the NASDAQ and the S&P500 fell only four times.

DJIA 1.10 percent

NASDAQÂ… -.15 percent

S&P500 .27 percent

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