USMarketView

May 30, 2008

Today was the fourth positive close for the NASDAQ and the S&P500 in as many days. So these indices moved up on every session in this holiday week of only four trading days.

While the DJIA failed to increase on Friday, its decline was a mere -.06 percent.

What could we have said if the DJIA had stayed in positive territory? It would have been the 13^th instance, since January 2000, of all three indices moving higher in four successive sessions; that four of these events occurred between August 17, 2006 and November 15, 2006; that in this time period, the NASDAQ gained 13.2 percent, the DJIA increased 8.1 percent and the S&P500 added 7.7 percent to its value.

Nevertheless it was a positive week for all three indices, with the NASDAQ gaining 3.2 percent and almost returning to its two weeks ago close. The S&P500 rose 1.88 percent this week, while the DJIA advanced 1.27 percent.

Looking at the record, in this the 22^nd week of the year, the S&P500 stands even, with 11 positive and 11 negative weeks, but is .7 percent below its first week of the year close. The DJIA has moved higher in 12 of these weeks, but nevertheless is 1.27 percent below the start of 2008. Only the NASDAQ is above -by .7 percent- its January 4 level although it has moved higher in only ten weeks this year.

DJIA -.06 percent

NASDAQ .57 percent

S&P500 .26 percent

May 29, 2008

All three indices closed up today, and now have a three positives in a row streak going, for only the second time this year. Indeed, there have been only 44 such sessions since January 2000. That is, on just 2.08 percent of the 2,112 trading days in this century.

2008 has not seen all three indices having a run of four positive closes; and there have been just 13 days, since 2000, with all indices rising four straight days.

Looking at the past, and considering the performance of each index individually, we see that the NASDAQ failed to advance, falling on the fourth session, 82 times in this century, and succeeding with another advance on only 66 occasions.

The S&P500’s record is not as good, having 62 sessions with a fourth in a row increase, but falling 67 times.

Finally, the DJIA has the best record on the fourth such trading day, with 76 successive four day advances but just 47 declines on the fourth day.

DJIA .41 percent

NASDAQ .87 percent

S&P500 .53 percent

May 28, 2008

Even though today’s outcome was in doubt till the closing bell, all three indices managed to end positive today. The action since mid April, when the year’s low was reached, has been a slow climb interrupted by frequent retreats.

But even with this improvement, prices remain below this year’s initial days. The NASDAQ is 4.7 percent below its opening price of 2008; the S&P500 is worth 3.9 percent less and the DJIA is off 3.4 percent from the early January values.

Considering the daily path of the S&P500, for example, it is clear that so far in 2008, the market lacks momentum. The number of up days and losing days at this time is 48 in both directions. That is, there have been 48 days on which the S&P500 closed with a gain, and an identical number, 48 days on which this index lost ground. (See the diagram.)

Perhaps this even outcome will change, but until then, no firm market direction seems in sight.

DJIA .36 percent

NASDAQ .22 percent

S&P500 .40 percent

May 27, 2008

With the markets closed yesterday for the Memorial Day observance, the first trading day of the week closed higher. The NASDAQ advanced 1.50 percent, its largest positive move since May 12, nine days ago.

The odds for negative days and positive days on Tuesdays, after Monday holiday closings, for these three indices are more or less equal. Since January 2000, after the 41 Monday closings, 20 Tuesdays posted increases, while there were losses on 21 Tuesdays. And between 1950 and 1999, there were 84 Tuesday increases and 86 declines.

As for the day after Memorial Day, we now have three positive Tuesdays, since 2000, after losses on the Friday before the holiday, whereas prices fell twice in the same situation.

DJIA .55 percent

NASDAQ 1.50 percent

S&P500 .68 percent

May 23, 2008

Unable to hold on to Thursday up tick, the NASDAQ fell for the fourth time this week; the DJIA and the S&P500 also were off on Friday, their third negative close in the past five days.

As a result, the DJIA fell -3.91 percent this week, while the S&P500 dropped -3.47 percent and the NASDAQ lost -3.33 percent since last Friday.

With May 23 marking the 21^st Friday of 2008, today’s result has the NASDAQ falling in 12 weeks, the S&P500 now scoring its 11^th negative week, and the DJIA off for the 10^th time from Friday to Friday. Moreover, today was the fourth sharpest weekly decline suffered by these indices this year.

Looking at the past, eight Tuesdays after the Memorial Day holiday since 2000, two have been negative after Friday losses, and two have closed up after Friday declines.

The same result occurred also after the indices advanced on the previous Friday: there were an equal number of up and down days -two- on the Tuesday following Memorial Day.

(Revised, 9:15 AM, May 27.)

DJIA -1.16 percent

NASDAQ -.81 percent

S&P500 -1.32 percent

May 22, 2008

With the NASDAQ finally closing ahead –it’s been in the red since last Friday- all three indices achieved gains today. Yet the moves were modest. And even so, the NASDAQ recovered only to the level it achieved 11 trading days ago, on May 9.

The S&P500, negative since Tuesday, also closed no higher than on May 9. The DJIA, with its second gain of the week as well, however moved only to the point first reached 25 days ago, on April 17.

DJIA .19 percent

NASDAQ .67 percent

S&P500 .26 percent

May 21, 2008

With the long holiday weekend approaching, the indices extended their losses of yesterday. The DJIA and the NASDAQ both dropped -1.77 percent, while the S&P500 fell -1.61 percent.

This is the second straight decline for the DJIA and the S&P500, and the fourth successive negative close for the NASDAQ.

Yesterday’s analysis focused on the recent pattern of steep changes every fourth day or so but with only minor fluctuation on the other, in between, trading days. The market today, of course, failed to follow that pattern, posting two back to back losses in the minus one percent, or more, range.

But it should be noted that in the past two days, all three indices have moved in the same, negative, direction, rather than repeating their recent divergent paths.

DJIA -1.77 percent

NASDAQ -1.77 percent

S&P500 -1.61 percent

May 20, 2008

Negative from the opening bell, all three indices suffered setbacks; losing almost a full percentage point, both the NASDAQ and the S&P500, nevertheless, fared better than the DJIA’s drop of -1.53 percent.

The market seems to be following the pattern of recent activity described yesterday: a few days of relatively minor changes followed by a close in excess of minus, or plus, one percent.

Today’s decline comes just four days after all three indices enjoyed significant gains. This, in turn, happened subsequent to three other days of mild changes. The same mold continues into the recent past: a major move (that is, near or in excess of a one percent change in either direction) after three or four days of relative calm.

Another feature worth observing is the diversity in the direction of daily change of each of these indices. While all three fell today, it was the first negative close for the S&P500 in four sessions. On the other hand, it was the NASDAQ’s third straight setback. Meanwhile the DJIA, over the same period, had a series of alternate up and down days.

Such divergences are not at all frequent in the daily closings of these indices.

DJIA -1.53 percent

NASDAQ -.95 percent

S&P500 -.93 percent

May 19, 2008

Today the NASDAQ was out of step, falling, while the DJIA and the S&P500 moved higher. Last Friday, it was the S&P500, rising, while the other two indices declined.

This is the 11^th such occurrence in the past 31 trading days: more than a third of all closes since April 1.

While this was happening, most of the daily movements -both up and down- were quite small. Yet these were interrupted by a day with a large change, running between one and almost four percent.

The NASDAQ had nine such closes since April 1: six positive and three negative. The S&P500 had eight, six of which were increases. Similarly, the DJIA had five large gains and two losses larger than 1.5 percent.

DJIA .32 percent

NASDAQ -.50 percent

S&P500 .09 percent

May 16, 2008

The S&P500 moved up .13 percent today while the DJIA and the NASDAQ fell slightly, making this the third time in 2008, and only the 19^th occurrence since January 2000, for this, one up and two down, pattern.

Nevertheless, the current week was a good one for all three indices. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P500 closed lower only once this week; the DJIA was not far behind, scoring three gains in the past five days.

The NASDAQ gained 3.41 percent for the week; the S&P500 increased 2.67 percent and the DJIA moved up by 1.89 percent.

Moreover, this was NASDAQ’s first end of week close higher than on the initial Friday of 2008. Now all three indices have passed this benchmark, with the DJIA achieving it four weeks ago and the S&P500 on the first Friday of this month.

DJIA -.05 percent

NASDAQ -.19 percent

S&P500 .13 percent