USMarketView

April 2, 2008

Prices could not hold on their earlier gains, and although most of the day was positive, the indices dropped slightly. The NASDAQ gave up -.06 percent, the S&P500 -.19 percent and the DJIA, the biggest loser today was down -.36 percent.

Even if negative, these results compare favorably with the record since 2000 for the day following a large advance, as occurred on Tuesday. The S&P500, with 16 closes greater than yesterday’s 3.6 percent, managed only six up days, but posted ten down closes. Moreover, the median loss of -1.64 percent is far greater than today’s, which is in the 99^th percentile.

This is true also for the DJIA; this average closed down on nine of the 16 days, since 2000, that followed an increase greater than 3.2 percent. Its median loss was -1.12 percent, more than three times larger than its loss today.

Only the NASDAQ had a greater number of positive returns on the day following increases of 3.7 percent. It had 57 positive closes, compared to 36 declines. Nevertheless, today’s loss of a mere -.06 percent compares favorably with the median of -1.40 percent.

DJIA -.36 percent
NASDAQ -.06 percent
S&P500 -.19 percent

April 1, 2008

All three indices added more than three percent to their value today. It was their best performance since March 18 and March 11. Indeed, daily jumps exceeding today’s increases occurred just 16 other times for the S&P500 and 15 times for the DJIA since January 1, 2000. The NASDAQ, because of its technology boom, of course, had 55 such closes.

While today was the first day of the second quarter, again, all three indices scored the largest proportionate gain, for the opening day of the second quarter in their history. For the DJIA and the S&P500 our records extend back to 1950, while the NASDAQ series starts at its inception, in February 1971.

In this century, the median change for this first trading date in April, is less than .25 percent for the DJIA and the S&P500; while the median for the NASDAQ is negative: -.05 percent. Moreover the same result holds for the period before 2000.

DJIA 3.11 percent
NASDAQ 3.67 percent
S&P500 3.59 percent