USMarketView

April 30, 2008

The Fed Funds rate cut, more or less expected was announced today, but its 25 basis decline, failed to excite the market to move up.

Actually, today’s reaction is not at all unusual; it is the tenth downturn for the DJIA and the S&P500 of the 19 rate cuts in this century occurring on the announcement date. The NASDAQ record is not much different, having only nine declines, but ten increases.

But the prospects for the day after are promising. The NASDAQ has moved higher twelve times on the day following the rate cut announcement, and fallen only six times. The other two indices follow the same pattern, but do not have as many advances, The S&P500 increased tem times, and fallen eight times on the day after the Fed rate cut announcement, while the DJIA has an even response, falling nine times and also gaining nine times.

DJIA -.09 percent

NASDAQ -.55 percent

S&P500 -.39 percent

A Repeat of Yesterday

The DJIA and S&P500 averages turned negative at the end of trading, whereas the NASDAQ stayed positive, gaining  .07 percent at the close. The losses in the DJIA and S&P500, however, were quite small,  -.31 percent and  -.39 percent, respectively.

This is the same pattern as yesterday, but the changes are slightly different, with the losses of the DJIA and the S&P500 deeper than the day before, but still quite small.

So we update and then repeat the comments of April 28.

Today’s pattern of an increase in the NASDAQ, and declines in the other two indices, is the fourth of 2008; following yesterday, and the March 4 and February 8 incidents.  There have been 123 other such closes since January 2000, accounting for 6.2 percent of all trading dates in this century.

As for today’s minute changes in the DJIA and the S&P500, about nine percent of all closes in the period between 1950 and the end of 1999, were in the zero to minus .16 percent range.  Their frequency has declined a bit in the current decade, falling to 8.9 percent for the DJIA and 7.5 percent for the S&P500, implying that daily changes are on the increase.

DJIA                           -.31    percent

NASDAQ                     .07    percent

S&P500                      -.39    percent 

Note: For the purpose of having the name define the mission more accurately, this blog has

changed its name to USMarketView.com.

April 28, 2008

Ending their three day streak, these averages turned negative during the last hour of trading, whereas the NASDAQ stayed positive, gaining .06 percent at the close. The losses in the DJIA and S&P500, however, were quite small, -.16 percent and -.11 percent, respectively.

Today’s pattern of an increase in the NASDAQ with declines in the other two indices, is the third of 2008; following the March 4 and February 8 incidents. There have been 123 other such closes since January 2000, accounting for 6.2 percent of all trading dates in this century.

As for today’s minute changes in the DJIA and the S&P500, about nine percent of all closes in the period between 1950 and the end of 1999, were in the zero to minus .16 percent range. Their frequency has declined a bit in the current decade, falling to 8.9 percent for the DJIA and 7.5 percent for the S&P500, implying that daily changes are on the increase.

DJIA -.16 percent

NASDAQ .06 percent

S&P500 -.11 percent

April 25, 2008

While relatively small, the DJIA posted a third gain in as many days. This is also the third time since January that this index managed such a stream.

The S&P500, on the other hand, achieved this level of successive closes for the fifth time this year. The chance of a fourth positive advance, for this index is substantially smaller, having occurred only one before this year –a week ago, on April 18- and just 62 times since the beginning of 2000

While the DJIA scored two such four day streaks in 2008, both of, however, were negative.

As for the weekly results, all three indices advanced; with the NASDAQ up .83 percent from last Friday, the S&P500 gaining .54 percent, and the DJIA adding .33 percent. The weekly record for 2008 now stands at nine advances and eight declines for the DJIA; eight up and nine down weeks for the S&P500; while the NASDAQ has seven pluses and ten minuses this year.

DJIA .32 percent

NASDAQ -25 percent

S&P500 .65 percent

Note: For the purpose of having the name define the mission more accurately, this blog has changed its name to USMarketView.com.

April 24, 2008

The NASDAQ just missed scoring another full percentage point gain today, closing up .99 percent. Nevertheless, it, as well as the DJIA and the S&P500 moved higher today; so all three indices have now increased two days in a row.

Since the start of this year, 78 trading days ago, the DJIA has posted ten other such closes: gains on two trading days in a row. The next, or third, day however, registered falling prices on seven occasions. That is, there were just three incidents on which the DJIA posted a further gain.

The S&p500 and the NASDAQ, had only nine strings of two successive gains. But the S&P500 scored a third positive day five times, in 2008, whereas the NASDAQ moved higher only three times in the following session.

DJIA .67 percent

NASDAQ .99 percent

S&P500 .64 percent

Note: For the purpose of having the name define the mission more accurately, this blog has changed its name to USMarketView.com.

April 23, 2008

The NASDAQ gaining 1.19 percent bettered the DJIA and S&P500 by almost a whole percentage point today. This index has increased 10.9 percent, from its latest low of 2169, reached on March 10, 2008.

The NASDAQ has outperformed both the DJIA and the S&P500 by a substantial amount since that low. The DJIA has increased only 8.7 percent, while the S&P500, the laggard of the group, moved up a mere 8.4 percent.

These enhancements occurred in the last 31 trading days, and despite the many, and often large, negative closes. Moreover, while the total positive days are almost the same for all the indices -14 for the NASDAQ, 15 for the DJIA, and 16 for the S&P500- the median daily up tick for the NASDAQ in this period is 1.73 percent, more than triple the S&P500 median of .54 percent, and the .49 percent for the DJIA.

DJIA .34 percent

NASDAQ 1.19 percent

S&P500 .29 percent

Note: For the purpose of having the name define the mission more accurately, this blog has changed its name to USMarketView.com.

April 22, 2008

All three indices decreased today, with the NASDSAQ the greatest loser, off by -1.29 percent. The S&P500 lost -.88 percent while the DJIA declined -.82 percent. This was their second down day, whereas it was the first NASDAQ reversal, after yesterday’s meager .21 percent increase.

Historically, two successive declines on the heels of four straight gains, has happened only twelve times for the S&P500, since January 1, 2000. The DJIA has almost twice as many, with a record of twenty-three of these occurances.

Looking at the past, again, with this record, the S&P500, went up just about twice as often as turning in a third negative day in a row. This same ratio applies also to the DJIA.

The outlook for the NASDAQ, based on this history, is not so optimistic, with the ratio of the next day being positive, rather than negative, is only in the neighborhood of 1.1.

DJIA -.82 percent

NASDAQ -1.29 percent

S&P500 -.88 percent

Note: For the purpose of having the name defining the mission more accurately,, this blog has switched its name to USMarketView.com.

April 21, 2008

Today was very much like last Thursday—when the NASDAQ declined and the other two indices went up. Except today it was the DJIA and the S&P500 that fell, while the increase went to the NASDAQ.

The changes were somewhat smaller today, though, as the S&P500 was off by -.16 percent, the DJIA lost -.19 percent, whereas the NASDAQ moved .21 percent higher.

Considering the trading results since January 2000, the DJIA and the S&P500 closed in the range of minus .25 percent and plus .25 percent on just about one out of every four trading days. The NASDAQ, on the other hand, experienced far fewer small changes, with only 16 percent in that minus .25 percent and plus .25 percent interval.

DJIA -.19 percent

NASDAQ .21 percent

S&P500 -.16 percent

April 18, 2008

Increasing by 4.92 percent, NASDAQ scored the largest weekly gain of the year as the other two indices also closed the week with substantial gains. The S&P 500 increased 4.31 percent while the DJIA moved up 4.25 percent. This was their second highest weekly gain of the year, surpassed only by the week ending February 1, 2008.

In the 16 weeks so far of 2008, the DJIA has the best performance, moving up in eight weeks, while the S&P500 finished higher in seven of the 16 weeks. The NASDAQ shows the weakest results, with only six positive weeks.

Considering the high power performance of the NASDAQ, gaining 2.61 percent today, after Wednesday’s increase of 2.81 percent, in light of the past, when on 27 occasions this index had the same pattern of two or more percent increase on one day, an intervening day, then a two or more percent increase on the third day.

But 19 of those three day episodes took place between February 2000 and October 2003 – that’s the period in which the NASDAQ dropped from 4220 to 1272. The other eight occurred as the index recovered to 1880 on October 2003.

Accordingly, we wonder again, as on Wednesday, in evaluating this pattern, does this performance portend better or worse times ahead?

DJIA 1.81 percent

NASDAQ 2.61 percent

S&P500 1.81 percent

April 17, 2008

After being in the red most of the day, the DJIA and the S&P500 nosed into positive territory, but not by much. However, the NASDAQ failed to move into the black, even though its recovery started around noon.

While not common, there are times when this disparity between the NASDAQ and the other two indices is seen. Actually, today marks its fourth appearance in 2008. There were 11 such closes last year, and as many as 132 between January 1, 2007 and today.

Finally, there were 105 occasions, on which both the DJIA and the S&P500, at the end of trading, closed with gains between .01 and .10 percent. That is 4.8 percent of the 2,183 trading days in this century.

Today’ Changes

DJIA .06 percent

NASDAQ -.35 percent

S&P500 .01 percent