Stocks Slip Back; Today and the Last Decline

March 12, 2008

The steepest decline was the S&P500, losing -.90 percent, with the NASDAQ off -.53 percent, whereas the DJIA came off the least hurt, falling just -.38 percent.

Relating today’s closes to yesterday –when all three indices gained nearly four percent- and the record of changes of that magnitude, we focus this analysis on the features of these latest developments; do they share, or diverge from, the past?

Ten of the days, following the 16 trading days that scored advances near four percent in all three indices, occurred in the 2000-2003 decline. Moreover, the median changes on the following day were all negative. The other six took place in the early stage of the following recovery; their median changes were all positive.

Four of the following days during the expansion phase scored advances, whereas six of the ten days in the decline ended negative.

As for the extent of the losses during the long market decline, the DJIA suffered least, maintaining 64 percent of its peak value. The NASDAQ lost the most, keeping just 22 percent of its highest close; the S&P500’s bottom reached 51 percent of its top.

These declines are far larger than the drop off from last fall’s tops. At Monday’s closing prices, on March 10, the NASDAQ was at 77 percent of last October price, the S&P500 at 81 percent and the DJIA at 83 percent.


DJIA - .38 percent
NASDAQ -.53 percent
S&P500 -.90 percent

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