Two Weeks in 2008 – Two Weeks Down

January 11, 2008

While this week closed down, again, the decline was not nearly as sharp as the first week of the year. Indeed, the losses posted on Friday, January4, were the sharpest of any week since 1950, for the S&P500, since 1978 for the DJIA, and since the inception of the NASDAQ in 1975.

While these data are disquieting, nevertheless, it is not easy to find a relationship between the first weeks of the year and the total change at year’s end. Indeed, the number of negative years –that is, the index was lower at the end of the year than in January- is not large. In the 57 years since 1971, all but nine were negative for the S&P500, and there were 11 such negative years for the DJIA and the NASDAQ.

While the S&P500 never had more positive weeks in January than down weeks, the record for the other two indices does not allow a generalization.

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