January 9, 2008
Not only did the NASAQ go up today for the first positive close this year- but its gain of 1.39 percent exceeds the median +.99 percent increase achieved the previous eleven times this index rebounded from eight straight losses.
The S&P500 had its second positive close of 2008; its 1.36 percent increase is in the 90th percentile range for its recent trading pattern.
Similarly, the DJIA gain of 1.16 percent is also in the 90th percentile.
Given the recent pattern of ups and downs, and comparing this to the history of past closes, the chance of another gain for the NASDAQ is only 20 percent greater than for a decline. Yet the median gain in the past has been 1.11 percent, whereas the median decline was only -.09 percent.
The equivalent comparison for the S&P500 reveals a ratio of 28 gains to 11 losses, with the median gain of .86 percent compared to the negative median of -.59 percent.
The DJIA past shows an 18 percent advantage for a next trading day increase, while the magnitudes of the advance and decline are about equal.
DJIA + 1.16 percent
NASDAQ + 1.39 percent
S&P500 + 1.36 percent
This entry was posted on Thursday, January 10th, 2008 at 12 042008000000Thu, 10 Jan 2008 04:08:27 +0000 and is filed under Market Report. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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