Archive for October, 2007

Friday, October 12th, 2007

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NASDAQ Joins the DJIA and SP500 Drop

Thursday, October 11th, 2007

The NADAQ finally turned down today, unable to continue its string of gains. Today’s loss of 1.40 percent exceeds the 1.03 percent average decline occurring after five straight upticks. It is greater also than the two similar instances so far this year: minus .20 percent on January 16 and minus 1.15 percent in July.

Since January 2000, there are only five instances when a second decline followed on the next day, whereas the NASDAQ turned nine reversals into positive closes. The average gain of only .86 percent on those days is much smaller than the typical loss of minus 1.75 percent.

Both the DJIA and S&P500 declined for a second day in a row, with the former losing just .44 percent compared to the S&P500 decline of .69 percent.

Looking at the DJIA record since 2000 for three losing days in a row, there are 108 of these, with the average loss of .87 percent. On the positive side, there are 132 instances of advances after two down days, with an average gain of .89 percent.

A similar precedent exists for the S&P500, with 112 three straight loss trading days and an average decline of .92 percent, while there are 114 up days, with a .74 rise, after two successive declines.

NASDAQ Advances for Fifth Straight Day—S&P500 and DJIA Decline

Wednesday, October 10th, 2007

By rising .27 percent today, the NASDAQ recorded a rare gain on every one of the last five trading days. In fact just 31 of these occurred since January 2000, while today’s close is already the sixth time for this event in 2007.

Tomorrow will bring either another increase or the first decline in six trading days. In the past, the NASDAQ fell 14 times after posting five straight gains, with the loss averaging 1.03 percent.

The likelihood of a sixth straight gain is slightly better, with 17 such closes since January 2000.

While the odds, or past experiences, of these runs, are quite similar –.88 percent for another increase compared to .72 percent for a decline – the magnitude of the downturns in the past have averaged 1.03 percent, whereas the typical increase was limited to .53 percent.

Five of the declines exceed minus one percent, with the steepest drop as much as minus 3.13 percent.

The record on the positive side is not as encouraging: while there have been four increases exceeding one percent on the sixth straight close, the largest gain is just 1.83 percent.

All Three Indices Advance

Tuesday, October 9th, 2007

NASDAQ’s.59 percent advance today is the fourth straight gain in as many trading days. Since 2000, there have been only 62 such four day runs, occurring on 3.2 percent of all closes.

Considering tomorrow’s close, NASDAQ has posted 31 five straight advances –that is 1.6% of the time- since the start of 2000.

But there have been an equal number -31- negative closes after four straight advances since 2000.

While these odds are just equal, there are 21 five straight positive closes in the last four years—compared to only 17 down days following four straight advances.

The S&P500 rose .81 percent today, while the DJIA gained .86 percent, making this the first positive day of the week for these indices.

The NASDAQ average is now 3.08 percent above its July 2007 high, whereas the DJIA has gained 1.41 percent; the S&P500 trails these results, increasing just .78 percent since July.

NASDAQ Continues Higher; DJIA and S&P500 Decline

Monday, October 8th, 2007

The NASDAQ opened the week by posting its third straight gain in as many days, closing .25 percent higher. Three successive NASDAQ upticks occur on 9 percent of all trading days, with the gain, on average, being .66 percent.

The DJIA as well as the S&P500 closed lower today, posting a -1/+2 (a down day following two positive closes) record. This -1/+2 pattern occurs just 5.8 percent of all trading days, with the losing day showing a .53 percent decline on average. Since the DJIA fell .16 percent and the S&P500 was off .32 percent, today’s losses are well below the record of such days.

S&P500 Posts New High

Monday, October 8th, 2007

On October 5, the S&P closed above its July high, joining the DJIA and NASDAQ indices in recovering from the recent market drop.

The NASDAQ is now 2.21 percent above its July 19 close; the DJIA has gained .7 percent above its high, while the S&P500 is a mere .03 percent higher.

All three averages closed the week with gains on Friday and Thursday. Such increases, on two successive days, occur on only 13 percent of all trading days. While the average gain on those days is about .62 percent for the S&P, it increased .96 percent today.

The DJIA did not do as well – gaining .65 percent today; in contrast, the NASDAQ closed up 1.71 percent, substantially above its .82 percent average gain on the second straight positive close.

Averages Post Minimal Gains

Thursday, October 4th, 2007

While all three averages changed for the positive today, the advances were barely noticeable. The S&P500 was the leader, increasing by .21 percent, followed by the NASDAQ at .15 percent; the DJIA trailed with a .05 percent increase.

This is the first advance for the S&P500 and the DJIA, since their Monday highs. This +1/-2 (one uptick after two declines) closing pattern occurred on 124 trading days since January 2000: with the S&P500 rising .96 percent on average -compared to its .21 percent today- and the DJIA average increase of .85 percent far in excess of today’s .05 percent.

The NASDAQ increase, following yesterday’s decline, after the two plus days at the beginning of the week, established a +1/-1/+2 configuration. There are just 63 of these since 2000, with a typical increase of 1.24 percent, almost ten times today’s .15 percent gain.

NASDAQ Continues Higher; DJIA and S&P500 Drift Down

Tuesday, October 2nd, 2007

With today’s .22 percent gain, the NASDAQ again set another new high, and while the DJIA fell .29 percent, that index nevertheless remained above its July high. The S&P500, however, fell further behind, and, off by just .03 percent, has not, for the second straight day, joined the other two indices in regaining the previous high.

When the market reached the then record high on September 1, 2000, the NASDAQ and S&P retreated for the next two days as the DJIA continued setting further records for another two days, before suffering three straight declines.

So this week’s pattern of two indices achieving new highs one day, and the NASDAQ continuing higher as the DJIA declined the next day, resembles the action the last time the market achieved an all time high.

DJIA and NASDAQ at New Highs

Tuesday, October 2nd, 2007

Both indices surpassed their July 19, 2007 tops, recovering all territory lost since, and then some, to set new all time highs.

The NASDAQ gained 1.46 percent for the day, and its close of 2740.99 is .8 percent above the July 19 high.

The DJIA reached 14087.55, up 1.38 percent today, as it posted a .6 percent gain over the July high.

While the S&P500 also was a gainer, with 1.33 percent above Friday’s close, it failed to reach its previous peak–but by only .4 percent.