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In comparison to the record since 2000, the NASDAQ performed better on Tuesday, declining just -.03 percent, compared to its median fall of -.59 percent. . (See the table below.) The S&P500, however, lost more today, -.65 percent, than the median loss, -.50 percent, on the first negative close after two positive days. The DJIA, though, fell -.56 percent, just about equal to its median loss.

Record Since January 2000 …………………….Actual 10/30/07

40 days, DJIA Median -.54 percent… …….….-.56 percent,
33 days, NASDAQ Median -.59 percent…… -.03 percent
38 days, S&P 500 Median -.50 percent… … …-.65 percent.

Should the market drop tomorrow, the record since 2000 for two losses, after two gains is:

68 trading days, DJIA Median - .66 percent,
61 trading days, NASDAQ Median - .84 percent,
67 trading days, S&P 500 Median - .71 percent.

On the other hand, if Wednesday is an upday, the data for one gain, after a down day, succeeding two positive gains is:

77 trading days, DJIA Median + .70 percent,
64 trading days, NASDAQ Median + .95 percent,
76 trading days, S&P 500 Median + .56 percent.

History shows that the chances are just about even for a negative as for a positive close the following day for these two patterns in the almost 2000 trading days since January 2000.

With the NASDAQ gaining 1.94 percent, the S&P500 up 1.38 percent and the DJIA increasing .99 percent, the week closed higher after two successive losses.

The past week started with two positive days, then declines on Wednesday and Thursday, before Friday’s gains. Given this five day pattern of closes, since January 2000, the next day turned negative on 51 occasions for the NASDAQ and S&P500, and 67 times for the DJIA. The median changes on the next day were

DJIA Median -.57 percent,

NASDAQ Median -1.18 percent,

S&P 500 -1.12 percent.

As for the positive side, there were 64 gains for both the NASDAQ and S&P500, while the DJIA increased on 67 trading days. The median gains for the next day were

DJIA Median + .59 percent,

NASDAQ Median +1.04 percent,

S&P 500 Median +1.05 percent.

Posted Monday October 29, 2007, 10:15 AM.

All three indices declined for a second straight day on Thursday. With the NASDA the biggest loser at -.74 percent. The DJIA was off again by only a tiny fraction: -.02 percent today and -.01 percent on Wednesday, while the S&P500 dropped -.10 percent.

Considering the next day patterns, since January 2000, there have been an almost equal number of advances and declines –some 35 trading days out of more than 1900 — with the median gain and losses also about the same for the S&P500, the losses steeper than NASDAQ’s gains, and the DJIA declines smaller than the increases.

DJIA Median -.64 percent and +.82 percent,

NASDAQ Median -1.16 percent and +.62 percent,

S&P 500 -1.00 percent and +.94 percent.

After two positive days, all three indices declined on Wednesday. While the DJIA was off by just a tiny fraction, the NASDAQ lost -.88 percent, and the S&P500 dipped -.24 percent.

The historical results, since January 2000, are an equal number of advances and declines for the next trading day, with the median gain and losses also about the same:

DJIA Median -.66 percent and +.70 percent,

NASDAQ Median -.95 percent and +.95 percent,

S&P 500 -.71 percent and +.67 percent.

The -2.65 percent drop of the DJIA, its fifth loss in as many trading days, was joined by the NASDAQ’s equal decline of -2.65 percent, while the S&P500 lost -2.56 percent.

Since 1950, the DJIA has registered five such consecutive negative closes on 221 trading days, with 19 of these coming after January 2000. Yet today’s -2.65 percent decline is far greater than the median -.92 percent loss on those 19 days.

As for Monday, the DJIA experience on the-day-after-five-straight-losses since 2000 is 39 declines on the next trading day, with a median loss of minus -.86 percent. On the positive side, this index increased on 119 trading days, gaining a median change of .58 percent.

The DJIA registered its third straight loss today, managing only two gains in the last seven trading days. While the index was off only -.15 percent, it is the second repeat of this pattern in 2007. Altogether since January 2000, there have been only 18 such closes, with the median loss of -.66 percent.

The NASDAQ posted a 1.04 percent increase today and now has two positive closes in the last five days. The gain is in line with the median +1.02 percent median gain in the other 33 occasion of this pattern since January 2000.

The S&P500, while also marking the second uptick in the past five days, moved up a mere +.18 percent, a gain substantially smaller than the +.51 median gain registered in the 7 other times such an event occurred since January 2000.

The table below summarizes these changes and shows the price changes for the following day in identical patterns or circumstances in the past.

Tuesday’s loss was the fourth decline in the last five trading days for both the S&P500 and the DJIA.

Their recent closing pattern is two losses, following a positive close, after losses in the two previous sessions. There have been 27 of these for the S&P500 since 2000, with a median decline of -.76 percent, Tuesday’s decline of -.66 percent is not as steep.

The DJIA had 30 such -2/+1/-2 days, with its median loss of -.52 percent just about equal to today’s -.51 decrease.

The NASDAQ pattern slightly different, declining in only three of the last five days, results in a -2/+1/-1 history. There have been 53 of these since 2000 –substantially more than the other two indices; but today’s’ loss of -.58 percent is significantly less than the median -1.04 percent.

The table below summarizes these changes and shows the price changes for the following day in identical patterns or circumstances in the past.

Posted at 2:10 PM, Wednesday, October 17, 2007.

All three indices registered substantial declines today. The NASDAQ dropped -.91 percent, the S&P500 was off -.84 percent, and the DJIA declined -.77 percent.

Negative closes occurred in about half the trading days since January 2000, and of those, the DJIA and the S&P500 losses ranged between -.5 and -1.0 percent more than two thirds of the time.

The trading pattern of these two indices is today’s negative close, following Friday’s uptick, and two declines in a row, on Thursday and Wednesday of last week. This minus 1/ plus 1 / minus two pattern of closes happened some 60 times, but with smaller losses since 2000.

The table below summarizes these changes and presents the price changes for these indices in identical circumstances in the past.

All three indices registered substantial declines today. The NASDAQ dropped -.91 percent, the S&P500 was off -.84 percent, and the DJIA declined -.77 percent.

Negative closes occurred in about half the trading days since January 2000, and of those, the DJIA and the S&P500 losses ranged between -.5 and -1.0 percent more than two thirds of the time.

The trading pattern of these two indices is today’s negative close, following Friday’s uptick, and two declines in a row, on Thursday and Wednesday of last week. This minus 1/ plus 1 / minus two pattern of closes happened some 60 times, but with smaller losses since 2000.

The table below summarizes these changes and presents the price changes for these indices in identical circumstances in the past.

While the NASDAQ gained .91 percent this week, the DJIA advanced a mere .19 percent, and the S&P500 improved .27 percent over the previous Friday close.

All three indices moved up today, again led by NASDAQ’s 1.21 percent rise, with the DJIA posting a .56 percent gain and the S&P500 increasing by .48 percent.

With today’s positive close, the NASDAQ followed a pattern of +1 /-1 /+ 5 (that is, a series of closes with one positive day, following a down day, that occurred after five straight upticks). There are only nine such trading patterns since January 2000, having a typical –median- gain of .48 percent, which was outdistanced by today’s NASDAQ advance of 1.21 percent.