USMarketView

Today’s close of -.42% is the sixth downturn in the last 12 trading days. Since the market hit its recent low of 1406.70 on August 15, the number of plus days has just equalled the number of down days: Six plus and six minus finishes. But the positives –at four closes gaining more than 1%– outshine the three deeper than 1% declines.

So despite the up again, down again trading days, the index today gained more than 50 points –some 3.2%– in the last 12 trading days.

August 29’s close almost mirrors the previous day’s 2.35% drop.

It’s not often that the index scores a daily gain greater than 2 percent.

It’s happened only 67 times since January 2000. Indeed only twice this year, both this month, twice last year, none in 2005 nor in 2004. There were 12 in 2002, 8 in 2001 and 11 in 2000.

Today’s negative close follows yesterday’s -.85%.

This large a drop is not common, occurring only 73 times since January 2000 — with the median of all losses being -2.53%.

The largest loss so far in this decade is 6.2%, followed by -5.2%; there are 15 minus 3.99% to minus 3% days, and 54 days between -2% and – 3%.

Until today, this year’s largest losses were 3.60% on February 27; 2.32% on July 26; and 2.07% on March 13.

DJIA – 2.10%

NASDAQ -2.37%

Today’s decline is the third in the last eight trading days.

At -.85%, it is the steepest negative close since the S&P hit the last bottom of 1406.70 on August 15. The two other minus days were off -.02% and -.11%.

Today’s drop paired with Friday’s gain, yields a down day following an up day. This -1 day and +1 day sequence has repeated 255 times since January 2000, with the decline of .85% on the average.

DJIA -.42%

NASDAQ -.60%

Today’s gain of 1.14% is the third positive close this week.

Wednesday’s close was also greater than 1%.

With these two days, we now have 9 closes exceeding 1% in 2007. In all of last year only 16 days closed up more than 1%. In 2005, 11 days posted gains of 1% or more.

Five out of the last 7 trading days registered gains, resulting in the S&P500 increasing a total of 5.2% since the market low of 1406.70 on August 15.

DJIA closed up 1.08% while the NASDAQ composite gained 1.38% today.

At -.11 %, today’s decline is the first negative close since Monday.

There have been 510 times, since January 3, 2000, that the S&P 500 has turned down after three positive days-in-a-row . That’s 26.7% of the 1907 trading days since the beginning of 2000.

Today’s -.11 % decrease is substantially smaller than the -.56 % decline experienced for a first negative close, and 87% of such declines are steeper than -.11%.

August’s 22 gain of 1.17% is the second positive close in a row, coming after Monday’s loss.

PERSPECTIVES
Since January 2, 2000

*Only 100 up closes, after +2/-1 days

>>Average up tick .69%

>>Just 26 gains greater than 1.1%

* Gains greater than 1.1% in only 219 days –out of 1907 trading days

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